NFL Week 1 against the spread picks one total to bet on
The NFL season has finally arrived! Here are our best bets against the spread and one bonus wager for Week 1 this upcoming weekend. Albert Bainbridge IVNorthJersey.com 
After seven long months, meaningful NFL games are back with Week 1 getting underway in an AFC title rematch with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs raising their third Super Bowl banner in five seasons as they host the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
The return of the NFL’s regular season means the betting landscape for the biggest sport in North America is about to explode with Chiefs vs. Ravens to start, Eagles vs. Packers from Brazil on Friday, the first full slate of football Sunday, and Aaron Rodgers returning with the Jets playing against the 49ers on Monday night.
Last season, it was a strong finish for yours truly, finishing 11-2 against the spread (ATS) last postseason, including a clean 6-0 sweep in the Wild Card round.
This came after I finished the 2023 regular season with a 53-54-2 record, going 45-44-2 ATS and 8-10 on my bonus bets throughout last year.
Now it’s time for the 2024 NFL season as I analyze and deep dive on matchups each week to pick who will cover and more.
Here are my five best bets against the spread and one over/under to wager on for Week 1:
Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There’s no other place to start with the first regular season game of the year.
While the Chiefs may have gotten the best of MVP Lamar Jackson and Co. in Baltimore last January, I’m taking the points with the Ravens here.
Kansas City not only has to deal with the loss of L’Jarius Sneed, their best corner in a trade with the Titans to re-sign Chris Jones and others, but now list second round pick Kingsley Suamataia, a tackle out of BYU, as the blindside blocker for QB Patrick Mahomes.
We already saw it last year with the Lions going into Arrowhead and taking down the reigning Super Bowl champions on their home turf.
If this game goes the way of being a tight, low-scoring like last year, you have to believe the advantage could shift in favor of Baltimore and new RB Derrick Henry, who signed with the franchise this offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) vs. New England Patriots
The biggest point spread of Week 1 lies here with the Bengals hosting the Patriots in their first game of the post Bill Belichick era.
Coming off of back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, Cincinnati’s season came to a halt when QB Joe Burrow suffered a season ending wrist injury in mid-November. The organization would still finish above .500 record (9-8) but missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020, when Burrow also was injured and missed a majority of his rookie campaign.
Now the 2020 No. 1 overall pick is healthy and back under center for a home debut against a Patriots’ franchise that’s expected to finish with one of the worst records in 2024.
The big question mark is WR Ja’Marr Chase, who is still only one of two players (Jets’ Haason Reddick) who has not practiced and Week 1 status is heavily in doubt unless something significant changes.
Even if Chase doesn’t take the field come Sunday, the Bengals’ should roll versus a New England team that will struggle to score and stop their opponents, especially on the road.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
We move to the 4:25 p.m. window on Sunday. Unlike Chase, the Cowboys’ extended their superstar WR in CeeDee Lamb last month.
Yes, it’s noted that Cleveland is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL due to the extreme weather and wind surrounding Huntington Bank Field given the location of the stadium right on the coast of Lake Eerie. However, as a visitor, Dallas has the advantage of playing there Week 1, with temperatures expected in the high 60s and a projected clear forecast at kickoff.
Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson is back after missing a large chunk of 2023 but only recently started fully practicing and didn’t play in the preseason despite not being the QB1 in the spring and summer as he still recovered from injuries.
It comes down to who do you trust more in key areas, and right now I’m on the Cowboys’ side to cover and potentially win this one outright on Sunday afternoon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Commanders
The other game in the 4:25 p.m. window will be played in the Sunshine State. All eyes will be on No. 2 overall pick Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels as he makes his NFL debut.
However, a troubling trend could be on the rise for Washington’s new signal caller. Since 1970 (NFL/AFL merger), rookie QBs who have to travel on the road in Week 1 are 12-13-2 against the spread and 8-19 straight up.
Now Tampa Bay isn’t the most difficult place to play, but given these numbers and the Buccaneers offense having the significant upper hand over a expected porous Commanders’ defense, I’m comfortable laying the points with the Bucs in this spot.
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
It’s a rematch of last year’s epic Wild Card game where the Lions earned their first playoff victory in 32 years in a narrow 24-23 win against former franchise QB Matthew Stafford and the Lions.
There’s no doubt everyone expects another strong year from Detroit after being a game away from the Super Bowl.
The key here is getting “hook” (+/-3.5, +/-6.5, +/-10.5 and more), which the Rams currently sit at +3.5.
Now there’s certainly question marks around Los Angeles. It’s the first year without future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald, questions about the health of the offensive line and more.
But, the most important part is that Stafford is healthy (for now) and has running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua (expected to be good for Week 1) at his disposal.
In the final matchup of the first Sunday of the regular season, I’m banking on Stafford and Co. to get their revenge from last year’s playoff defeat, not only covering the spread but also pulling off the upset over the fan favorite Lions on Sunday Night Football.
Bonus Bet: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 41.5 points (-110)
The first bonus bet of the season comes in a divisional matchup in the NFC South. It couldn’t have gone much worse for 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and the Panthers last season, who won the fewest games (two) and tied with the Patriots’ for fewest points per game (13.9 PPG) a season ago.
You’d have to expect things will be slightly better for Carolina with offseason and draft additions of wide receivers Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks in 2024.
Even if the Panthers are able to get into double digits, this matchup has under written all over it. The last six meetings have all gone below this number and seven of the previous eight games have featured 41 or fewer points dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
The Saints’ offense finished on a high note last year but came out of the gates slow (scored 20 or fewer points in five of first six games), a possibility with New Orleans’ offense line not the healthiest heading into the regular season.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this total hits the 40 mark, but I think it ultimately stays right below this line of 41.5 points as the trend of low scoring games in the NFC South showdown continues in Week 1.
There’s no other place to start with the first regular season game of the year.
While the Chiefs may have gotten the best of MVP Lamar Jackson and Co. in Baltimore last January, I’m taking the points with the Ravens here.
Kansas City not only has to deal with the loss of L’Jarius Sneed, their best corner in a trade with the Titans to re-sign Chris Jones and others, but now list second round pick Kingsley Suamataia, a tackle out of BYU, as the blindside blocker for QB Patrick Mahomes.
We already saw it last year with the Lions going into Arrowhead and taking down the reigning Super Bowl champions on their home turf.
If this game goes the way of being a tight, low-scoring like last year, you have to believe the advantage could shift in favor of Baltimore and new RB Derrick Henry, who signed with the franchise this offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) vs. New England Patriots
The biggest point spread of Week 1 lies here with the Bengals hosting the Patriots in their first game of the post Bill Belichick era.
Coming off of back-to-back AFC Championship game appearances, Cincinnati’s season came to a halt when QB Joe Burrow suffered a season ending wrist injury in mid-November. The organization would still finish above .500 record (9-8) but missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020, when Burrow also was injured and missed a majority of his rookie campaign.
Now the 2020 No. 1 overall pick is healthy and back under center for a home debut against a Patriots’ franchise that’s expected to finish with one of the worst records in 2024.
The big question mark is WR Ja’Marr Chase, who is still only one of two players (Jets’ Haason Reddick) who has not practiced and Week 1 status is heavily in doubt unless something significant changes.
Even if Chase doesn’t take the field come Sunday, the Bengals’ should roll versus a New England team that will struggle to score and stop their opponents, especially on the road.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
We move to the 4:25 p.m. window on Sunday. Unlike Chase, the Cowboys’ extended their superstar WR in CeeDee Lamb last month.
Yes, it’s noted that Cleveland is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL due to the extreme weather and wind surrounding Huntington Bank Field given the location of the stadium right on the coast of Lake Eerie. However, as a visitor, Dallas has the advantage of playing there Week 1, with temperatures expected in the high 60s and a projected clear forecast at kickoff.
Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson is back after missing a large chunk of 2023 but only recently started fully practicing and didn’t play in the preseason despite not being the QB1 in the spring and summer as he still recovered from injuries.
It comes down to who do you trust more in key areas, and right now I’m on the Cowboys’ side to cover and potentially win this one outright on Sunday afternoon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Washington Commanders
The other game in the 4:25 p.m. window will be played in the Sunshine State. All eyes will be on No. 2 overall pick Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels as he makes his NFL debut.
However, a troubling trend could be on the rise for Washington’s new signal caller. Since 1970 (NFL/AFL merger), rookie QBs who have to travel on the road in Week 1 are 12-13-2 against the spread and 8-19 straight up.
Now Tampa Bay isn’t the most difficult place to play, but given these numbers and the Buccaneers offense having the significant upper hand over a expected porous Commanders’ defense, I’m comfortable laying the points with the Bucs in this spot.
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
It’s a rematch of last year’s epic Wild Card game where the Lions earned their first playoff victory in 32 years in a narrow 24-23 win against former franchise QB Matthew Stafford and the Lions.
There’s no doubt everyone expects another strong year from Detroit after being a game away from the Super Bowl.
The key here is getting “hook” (+/-3.5, +/-6.5, +/-10.5 and more), which the Rams currently sit at +3.5.
Now there’s certainly question marks around Los Angeles. It’s the first year without future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald, questions about the health of the offensive line and more.
But, the most important part is that Stafford is healthy (for now) and has running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua (expected to be good for Week 1) at his disposal.
In the final matchup of the first Sunday of the regular season, I’m banking on Stafford and Co. to get their revenge from last year’s playoff defeat, not only covering the spread but also pulling off the upset over the fan favorite Lions on Sunday Night Football.
Bonus Bet: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 41.5 points (-110)
The first bonus bet of the season comes in a divisional matchup in the NFC South. It couldn’t have gone much worse for 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and the Panthers last season, who won the fewest games (two) and tied with the Patriots’ for fewest points per game (13.9 PPG) a season ago.
You’d have to expect things will be slightly better for Carolina with offseason and draft additions of wide receivers Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks in 2024.
Even if the Panthers are able to get into double digits, this matchup has under written all over it. The last six meetings have all gone below this number and seven of the previous eight games have featured 41 or fewer points dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
The Saints’ offense finished on a high note last year but came out of the gates slow (scored 20 or fewer points in five of first six games), a possibility with New Orleans’ offense line not the healthiest heading into the regular season.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this total hits the 40 mark, but I think it ultimately stays right below this line of 41.5 points as the trend of low scoring games in the NFC South showdown continues in Week 1.
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